[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 292336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 9N37W
TO 4N38W TO 0N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK NOTED ON
METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 9N48W TO 5N50W
TO 0N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V MOISTURE
PLUME IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 47W-
52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N82W AND EXTENDS
TO THE E PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 5N22W AND CONTINUES
TO 4N36W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N39W TO
4N49W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 33N93W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S LOUISIANA AT 30N91W TO THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-91W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE N GULF STATES E OF LOUISIANA TO INCLUDE FLORIDA.
SURFACE RIDGING IS STILL OVER THE E GULF PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE
FLOW. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR
36N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA
ENHANCING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE W
GULF PRODUCING NW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...AND SPREAD TO
THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
PANAMA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE OVER CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA
...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S MEXICO TO PANAMA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 75W. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N
BAHAMAS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
35N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 27N52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 10N53W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO 30N40W. A 70 KT SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W TO 28N40W
PRODUCING A LARGE BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER E CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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