[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK NOTED ON
METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-
37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHERN
BRAZILIAN COAST WITH AXIS ALONG 48W MOVING NEAR 15-20 KT. DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
2S-6N W OF 42W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICAN TERRITORY VERY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING RAINSHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS FORMERLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NW
COLOMBIA HAS MOVED ALMOST IN ITS ENTIRETY TO E PACIFIC WATERS.
CURRENTLY ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N76W TO 3N82W. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 1N-
11N BETWEEN 74W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 7N18W 4N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N24W AND
CONTINUES TO 4N33W...IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
3N37W TO 4N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-8N E OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-
5N BETWEEN 27W-37W AND FROM 3S-6N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BORDER
BETWEEN LOUISIAN AND ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CONSISTS
OF A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 33N92W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO THE LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
NW GULF ALONG 29N92W 27N94W TO 25N96W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 85W-
91W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BEING GENERATED BY A NARROW RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE SE
STATES. CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING STRETCHES W-SW ROUGHLY TO E OF
91W. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THIS REGION IS ALLOWING FOR S-SE
WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. WEAKER WINDS NEAR 5 KT DOMINATE OVER THE
REMAINDER WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BASIN. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW
BASIN ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA AND ADJACENT
WATERS AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM
18N66W TO 11N74W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER
THE SW BASIN...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF
11N BETWEEN 74W-83W. OTHERWISE...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL BASIN IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 20-25 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF 15 KT
ELSEWHERE. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
WESTWARD MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PATCHES ALONG THE BASE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL TEND TO SHEAR OFF THE TOPS OF THE SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY
NOT ALLOWING FOR THEN TO ATTAIN A LONG DURATION OF OCCURRENCE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY SE WIND FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS W OF 76W TO INCLUDE THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. A CONFLUENCE ZONE GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A WEAK BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 18N64W TO 30N48W AND A LINE FROM
16N61W TO 30N29W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 14N MAINLY SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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