[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOONAL FLOW AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN
10W-24W. A 1007 MB LOW...LIKELY THE NORTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OF THE WAVE...IS ANALYZED AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 15N16W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 09W-12W...AND FROM 04N-08N
BETWEEN 16W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N45W TO 08N44W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED LARGELY WITHIN
THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-50W.
VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AS THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENCOMPASSES A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN ATLC
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AND AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
PROMOTING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N58W TO 11N58W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AT 700 MB ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY
BROAD AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 05N25W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N25W TO
02N45W TO 02N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES LISTED ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...HOWEVER E
OF 90W FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT GIVING WAY TO BETTER DYNAMICS
FOR PRECIPITATION. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS SW LOUISIANA
AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N92W THEN SOUTHWARD TO 27N92W TO
24N93W. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING N OF 22N...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH E-
SE SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALOFT ON BOTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 74W. MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 20N90W TO 13N84W TO 09N84W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 75W-83W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.
OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND JAMAICA THIS EVENING DUE TO
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG WIND NOTED GENERALLY
S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONGER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN PLACE...HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION THIS EVENING REMAINING W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT A
FEW EXTEND WITHIN 90 NM OFFSHORE. TO THE NORTHEAST...A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N60W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO
31N67W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 32N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N72W.
FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S-
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 28N44W THAT
SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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