[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 8N35W TO 2S37W...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE...WITH
WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST SIX OF HOURS...HOWEVER
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS. THIS
WAVE IS LIKELY TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N60W TO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 5N61W...MOVING W-NW NEAR
20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA WITHIN 120 NM
OF ITS AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N73W TO 4N73W
...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO E E PACIFIC WATERS WED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
9N14W TO 6N19W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N34W. THE AXIS
RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 2N39W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 0W-4W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E AND S OF THE CENTER TO
INCLUDE E TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF
STATES TO INCLUDE N FLORIDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING
IS STILL PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 24N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE  NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN
...VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING
NW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. A BAND OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO INCLUDE
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W. THE
TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W TO 27N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 65W-73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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