[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 8N37W TO 01N38W...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE
REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE...WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HAS INCREASED WITHIN
THE LAST SIX OF HOURS...HOWEVER ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BECOME FURTHER
SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD
UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST PASS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N61W TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 11N62W...MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA WITHIN 120 NM W OF ITS AXIS. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N75W TO INLAND
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE STRONG TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
OVER COLOMBIA WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
9N14W TO 6N18W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES TO 04N25W TO 03N37W. THE AXIS RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE
NEAR 02N40W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE  MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 24N-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
30 NM OF LINE FROM 03N42W TO INLAND THE COAST AT 03N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY EARLIER NOTED ACROSS THE NW AND N
CENTRAL GULF ARE DISSIPATING. THE CULPRIT DEEP LAYERED LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N95W. AMPLE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SE GULF AS WELL AS
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM

SURFACE RIDGING IS STILL PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE SW GULF.
ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO S
OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE  NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER LOUISIANA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN
...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OVER HISPANIOLA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO
COLOMBIA AT 11N74W. ABUNDANT MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALSO E OF
THIS LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
W OF 80W PRODUCING NW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI SW TO NW COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO INCLUDE PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE ISLAND IS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL ACROSS THE ISLAND
TO ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THAT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY APPROACH THE SE PART
OF THE ISLAND LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N56W WITH
A RIDE EXTENDING WSW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE TAIL END OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N55W TO NEAR 29N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 34N28W WITH
A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 28N50W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC E OF ABOUT 50W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING EASTWARD TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 51W. THIS
MOISTURE IS BEING GENERATED BY A STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CARIBBEAN TROUGH. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 25N70W WITH A
TROUGH SW TO HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


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