[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 7N33W TO 2S35W...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE...WITH WEAK 700 MB
TROUGHING ALOFT WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HAS
INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS. THIS WAVE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC
HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N58W TO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 6N59W...MOVING W-
NW NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WITHIN 130 NM OF ITS AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO
INLAND WESTERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
13N71W TO 3N71W...MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS INLAND THE TERRITORIES
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO E PAC WATERS
WED MORNING.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
9N13W TO 7N17W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 4N23W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N31W. THE
AXIS RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 2N37W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 1N E
OF 15W AND WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIPS INTO
THE FAR NW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST N OF TEXAS AND A SQUALL LINE ALONG WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA WHICH EXTENDS TO 27N IN THE NW GULF. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 92W-94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE W OF 94W. DENSE FOG IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN THE VICINITY
OF THE SQUALL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN
GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS NE OF A
LINE OF A LINE FROM 27N91W TO 24N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SW BASIN ALONG 23N97W TO 17N95W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 20 NM OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING BEING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W AND A 1022 MB OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH. WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT...CONVECTION IS BEING LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. LIGHTING DATA SHOW SOME TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AS
WELL. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 13N NEAR 71W
WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A BULGE OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
E OF A LINE FROM 18N64W TO 11N70W...INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE WAVE OVER VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA WILL ENTER THE SW BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO
THE E PAC WATERS BY THU NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE E BASIN WED MORNING.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE 20-25 KT WITH 15 KT
WINDS DOMINATING ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS STALLED OVER THE ISLAND...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IN THE REGION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED TO ONLY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW HAITI. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN
A MOIST AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CUT-OFF LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW
N ATLC FROM 20N-28N W OF 66W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATES DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT A
SWATH OF MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 22N BETWEEN 54W-64W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W SW TO 25N62W TO
26N73W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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