[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
23W. THIS WAVE HAS A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
THE ITCZ SEEMS TO BE MASKING ITS SIGNAL. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 700 HPA WIND AND STREAMFUNCTION ANALYSIS...THIS
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST LATE YESTERDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS NEAR
46W...MOVING W-NW ABOUT 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS WAS
FORECAST...THE WAVE SIGNAL AMPLIFIED ONCE IT MOVED OUT OF THE
ITCZ ENVIRONMENT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 41W-51W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
VENEZUELA WITH AXIS NEAR 62W...MOVING W-NW ABOUT 15 KT DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY INLAND VENEZUELA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING S OF 13N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W AND THEN INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC ALONG 8N14W.
THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 8N14W AND CONTINUES TO EAST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N21W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR
2N24W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1S32W TO 1N39W TO 2N44W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N E OF 18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF AND
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N75W. THIS IS PROVIDING E-SE
WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR KEEP FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE WHOLE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES STALLED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...SEE THE WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE NOTED
IN THE SW BASIN S OF 11N WEST OF 79W. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO
THE NORTHERN BASIN WHICH IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE
SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE W-NW TO BE SOUTH OF HAITI WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE
ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING THE REGION...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N66W EXTENDING SW TO
28N75W TO NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 80 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 72W TO INCLUDE
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS WELL AS NE OF PUERTO RICO S OF 24N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE CENTRAL
ATLC BY MONDAY MORNING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE
AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF
13N...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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