[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N24W TO 08N25W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AXIS AT THIS TIME. WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND
TRACES OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AT 850 MB ARE NOTED GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N47W TO 10N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND
SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 44W-
51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N64W TO 13N63W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE S OF 13N BETWEEN 59W-66W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 61W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO 03N25W TO 01N32W TO 03N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 06W-23W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 22W-
31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR
14N94W AND A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF HOWEVER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND FAR WESTERN
GULF LARGELY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...AT THE
SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE...ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS GULF
COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. E-SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
ALOFT THIS EVENING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 72W. TO THE WEST OF
72W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...THE TROUGHING ALOFT
SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED S OF
13N ALONG 63W. MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE
REMAINS INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA.
OTHERWISE...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONGER WINDS NOTED S
OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DUE TO PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING OR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOTED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 35N67W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N79W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N59W SW TO 28N74W TO 28N80W BECOMING STATIONARY TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL THE NORTHWARD
MEANDERING NORTHWARD TO THE 32N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 24N THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ONCE EAST OF 65W...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N33W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE
TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE
IN THE DEEP TROPICS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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