[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N61W...TO EAST COAST
OF TRINIDAD...IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA NEAR 6N60W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 69W AND
61W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUYANA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 28W...1S30W 1S35W 2S37W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND
15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
8N12W 5N20W 1N31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 94W/95W...FROM
MEXICO INTO TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...BEYOND THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE ICAO STATION KBBF...THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS...HAS
BEEN REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE SINCE
25/1135 UTC. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
REPORTED AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE IN TAMPA. A CLOUD CEILING IS
AT 7000 FEET IN PUNTA GORDA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING COVERS MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N72W...ABOUT
180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO THE
GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
NORTHWARD TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.24 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW..

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA
ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA...FROM ITS
BORDER WITH PANAMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH
THAT CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. A TROUGH IS ALONG 79W FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS OR
SO OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 25N73W AND 23N74W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS ABOUT 240 NM TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA. IT APPEARS THAT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ITSELF OFF FROM THE TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. SOME OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA IS MOVING INTO
THE 32N70W 23N74W TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT CONTINUES MORE TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N60W 26N70W TO
29N80W...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE WIND
FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN
BERMUDA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 25N25W 19N33W AND
16N37W. THIS FEATURE IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE/REGIME OF
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N34W...PASSING THROUGH 32N34W TO 29N51W 24N67W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
BEYOND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...ONE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 61W...AND A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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