[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N42W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT
AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN
38W-45W. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N58W TO 12N57W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN MAXIMUM VALUES S OF 12N BETWEEN 55W-62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 53W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N19W TO 02N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO 04N41W TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 22W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC REGION S
OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FOR THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
NE GULF NEAR 28N88W PROMOTES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 76W. TO THE WEST OF
76W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS
OF PANAMA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-73W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A GENERALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOTED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME COAST NEAR 41N61W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO 30N70W THAT LINKS UP WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 995 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N62W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N65W TO 30N75W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE GEORGIA COAST
NEAR 31N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N72W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS AN EXTENSION OF A VERY
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES
NEAR 35N31W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE
DEEP TROPICS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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