[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N37W TO 09N35W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT
AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN
33W-41W. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 36W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N57W TO 13N56W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN MAXIMUM VALUES S OF 13N BETWEEN 53W-61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO 02N30W TO 02N37W TO 02N42W TO 04N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 12W-33W...AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC REGIONS S
OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE
GULF NEAR 30N87W PROMOTES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
ALOFT THIS EVENING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 76W. TO THE WEST OF
76W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 11N BETWEEN 79W-83W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS
OF PANAMA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO
SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LIFTING MECHANISM...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 64W-
77W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
PERSISTING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A GENERALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOTED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME COAST NEAR 40N62W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO 30N67W THAT LINKS UP WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N65W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N67W TO 31N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 64W-75W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 26N. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS AN EXTENSION OF A VERY
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES
NEAR 35N33W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE
DEEP TROPICS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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