[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 6N54W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 51W-55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N22W TO 1N35W. A 1009 MB LOW
REMAINS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 5S32W WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 8W-11W AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 14W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE NW
ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF
25N TO OVER CUBA AND E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE S GULF CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE AND
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S AND SW OVER THE AREA MON THROUGH MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A SHEARLINE ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO
21N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 18N TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-80W AND N
OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE SHEARLINE
AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 20N. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER E PANAMA COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE BAHAMAS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
N OF 15N E OF 65W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SHEARLINE WILL DRIFT NW AND
BECOME DIFFUSE MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA AND THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
S/CENTRAL PORTIONS MON THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W ALONG 27N71W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N76W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEARLINE ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO OVER THE BAHAMAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W ALONG
29N53W TO 28N59W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING W
OF THE AZORES ALONG 32N36W TO 23N51W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH TUE WHILE THE SHEARLINE WILL MEANDER AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MON AND SHIFT S TO OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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