[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N53W TO 13N53W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 49W-56W
COINCIDING WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF A VERY SUBTLE 700 MB
SIGNAL PROPAGATING WESTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 51W-55W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 49W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
05N23W TO 02N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N
BETWEEN 14W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 07N
BETWEEN 18W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY BROAD DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR
23N97W OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A THIN RIBBON OF VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF FROM 24N-28N WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE IS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1023
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N87W. GENERALLY N OF 24N...CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ONLY ACTIVE AREA OF
WEATHER THIS EVENING IS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-
90W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END
OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA FROM 22N79W
TO 21N86W. OTHERWISE...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE
AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SE CONUS AND GULF THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND SW NORTH ATLC
REGION SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF
19N BETWEEN 74W-89W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 11N83W INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS
EVENING PROVIDING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS
FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COASTLINE
WHERE WINDS WILL REACH A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. THE PORTION OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING TO HISPANIOLA
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND
THROUGH MID-WEEK KEEPING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N68W TO 31N69W BECOMING STATION TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N79W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS OCCURRING S OF 26N
BETWEEN 65W-82W EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 37N52W SUPPORTING A
1001 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N53W. SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 42W-60W.
OTHERWISE...A PLUME OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE NOTED FROM 13N-30N BETWEEN 30W-47W. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN ATLC. THE SW NORTH ATLC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
SHIFT SOUTH TO OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net