[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 6N56W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-59W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N21W TO 2N31W. A 1010 MB LOW
REMAINS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 4S32W WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 5W-11W AND FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 14W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE NW
ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE
GULF S OF 23N TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF 88W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
WEST VIRGINIA. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A SHEARLINE ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N80W JUST N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF 70W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER CENTRAL PANAMA COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF COLOMBIA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
10N E OF 78W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 65W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. SHEARLINE WILL DRIFT NW AND BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES E OF 70W.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED
KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND
THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N66W AND EXTENDS TO 26N71W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SHEARLINE ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS S
OF 26N TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS S TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO OVER THE BAHAMAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N57W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLC EXTENDING W OF THE AZORES ALONG 32N36W TO 25N50W. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST REACHING FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FROM 31N57W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W BY LATE
TUE BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ALONG 30N
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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