[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W TO 3N46W MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 6N44W
TO 5N46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N20W TO 1N30W. THE ITCZ IS
COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. A 1009 MB LOW HAS FORMED S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 5S31W WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-18W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO OVER CUBA AND E OF 84W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N84W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE NW GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUN. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S AND SW OVER THE
AREA MON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CUBA AT 17/2100 UTC NEAR 22N79W TO
21N85W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM S OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER E PANAMA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE W ATLC. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE CUBA E OF THE
FRONT...PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL DRIFT NW AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED KEEPING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING
OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT 17/2100 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 32N71W TO 26N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
ENTIRE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI TO BEYOND
32N68W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W TO 27N38W
AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 29N49W TO
26N54W. A REMNANT DYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO THE S
FROM 26N40W ALONG 22N48W TO 20N57W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE
E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH THE AZORES ALONG 32N31W TO 20N41W. W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TUE WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN THROUGH MON AND SHIFT S TO OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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