[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N46W TO 3N47W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE A MOISTURE REDUCTION WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A WEAK SIGNAL OF IT AT 700 MB. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 140 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N18W TO 3N23W. A 1008 MB LOW IS
S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 5S29W WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 0S35W AND CONTINUES TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN A LINE FROM 6N11W TO 1S21W AND A LINE FROM
10N14W TO 4N22W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5S-9S BETWEEN 25W-30W...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 3S-9S BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SAME REGION BEING ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH AT THE BORDER BETWEEN KENTUCKY AND INDIANA AND
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
WHICH IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-20 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NOTED OVER THE SE BASIN S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-88W. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 26N73W EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
21N78W TO E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A BROAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS N-NE INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 78W.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVECTED
TO HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT WITHIN 100 NM OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA COASTLINE WHERE WINDS REACH A MAX OF 20 KT.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
SW N ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS BEING ADVECTED TO HISPANIOLA
WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH WED KEEPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
30N70W EXTENDING SW TO 26N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO E OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTS A 994 MB LOW NEAR 35N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N51W TO 25N55W WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 30N38W TO 23N44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SE OF THE FRONT FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 35W-
50W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN ATLC. W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TUE WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN THROUGH MON AND SHIFT S TO OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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