[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N46W TO 14N45W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE POSITION OF
THE WAVE VERY WELL WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES SURROUNDING THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 45W-50W THAT WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST CURRENTLY NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W-60W. AS THE WAVE COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE WAVE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY FRACTURE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS PROVIDED ITS WESTWARD PROPAGATION THE
LAST FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
01N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 08W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF 03N BETWEEN 19W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT THEME CONTINUES AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N88W PROVIDES OVERALL CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND CUBA
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR 10N82W. THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W SW TO 17N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
WITHIN 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDING OVERALL
STABILITY AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON E OF 81W. AT THE
SURFACE...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH ONLY A
FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...THE
LESSER ANTILLES REGION FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 59W-64W...AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW-
TOPPED AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDES GENERAL
STABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS DIMINISHING LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING  SW TO 29N74W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 34N83W AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF
WATERS NEAR 29N87W. THE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER
EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
35N51W THAT SUPPORTS A NEARLY COLLOCATED 997 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 36N50W. THE LOW IS OCCLUDED WITH THE COLD FRONT
REACHING FROM 33N36W TO 31N36W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 28N37W TO 24N45W TO 20N56W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR
38N29W TO 30N31W TO 18N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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