[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N43W TO 0N45W MOVING WEST NEAR
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...WITH NO FAVORABLE LIFTING MECHANISM IN
PLACE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N19W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 1N24W AND CONTINUES TO 1S31W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S40W. CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF
2N BETWEEN 8W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 17W-27W AND FROM 4S-8S BETWEEN 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE STATES INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY
TWO HIGH CENTERS...ONE OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W AND A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF 10-20 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED
OVER THE NW AND SE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N72W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO NORTH-
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 20N83W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTING DATA INDICATING TSTMS FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 81W-86W. ALOFT...A RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA BEING
ENHANCED BY MOIST AIR WHILE ELSEWHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE NW BASIN
WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WHILE TRADES OF SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE WINDS REACH 20 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN IT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOIST AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE MOISTURE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS FOR
THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N72W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO NORTHERN
CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SWATH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN A LINE FROM 30N71W
SW TO 21N76W AND A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO 25N80W. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N36W SW TO 22N43W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 11N NEAR 45W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
THE EASTERN ATLC. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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