[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 1N42W MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 5N34W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N39W
THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 2N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE
EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF CONUS EXTENDS INTO
THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W
ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N91W. CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT NE AND ACROSS THE SE CONUS THROUGH SUN. STRONGER
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S AND SW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FAR W ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CUBA
NEAR 23N81W ALONG 19N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT S OF 21N IS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N OVER
THE W ATLC. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE CUBA E OF
THE FRONT...PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA.
FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT
WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS CUBA BEFORE STALLING LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN ON SAT. FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT NW AND BECOMING DIFFUSE
SUN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE ISLAND IN PART DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SUN WHILE THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING
INTO THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N76W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N77W THEN ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF
30N AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND
32N71W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 20N BETWEEN 53W-74W ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N47W SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF
THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N36W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 24N41W 21N55W 23N64W TO 29N70W. THIS FRONT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRIER AIR AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH THE AZORES TO 20N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL THIS
EVENING ACROSS W CUBA WHILE MOVING SE THROUGH BAHAMAS AND ATLC
WATERS REACHING FROM 31N73W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 77W TO
W CUBA SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SUN BEFORE WEAK N PORTION SHIFTS SLOWLY SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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