[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N40W TO 00N42W MOVING WEST AT 10-
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. THE
WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCT WITH A MAXIMUM IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND HAS A BROAD TURNING AT LOW
LEVEL. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT FAIRLY LOW-
LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING NEAR 45W SAT
MORNING AND NEAR 50W SUN MORNING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST
OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W THEN CONTINUES TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 4N18W TO 4N38W...BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE...
FROM 2N45W AND ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 13N AND 15W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND
13W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF REGION
HAS MOVED SE OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS STILL AFFECTING THE FAR SE GULF AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. COOLER AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTICED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT S OF LINE FROM TAMPA BAY TO NEAR TUXPAN
MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1024 MB HIGH PRES
LOCATED NEAR 27N91W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD SE GEORGIA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S AND SW OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A VIGOROUS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
THIS FRONT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...OF 3-5 INCHES...
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN CUBA. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE GREATEST TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COVERING FROM 8 AM THU THE 15TH TO 8 AM FRI THE
16TH...LA PALMA 131.8 MILLIMETERS...CABO SAN ANTONIO 106.5 MM
AND BAHIA HONDA 91.5 MM...ALL OF THEM IN THE PROVINCE OF PINAR
DEL RIO. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT
PER THE 1454 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS EASTWARD...STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS LATE TODAY...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUNDAY. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CUBA ON SAT.
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND JUST
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THESE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SAT BUT
WEAKEN BY MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE WINDS FLOW TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO
WESTERN CUBA. FREEPORT IN THE NW BAHAMAS REPORTED 1.50 INCHES OF
RAIN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE
TODAY...STALL FROM 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE SAT...BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE ON SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
31N37W TO 22N50W TO 25N65W TO 29N70W. A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF
CLOUDINESS WITH LIKELY EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 35N46W. THE FRONT MAY REACH 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ON
SAT...RATHER LOW LATITUDE FOR SUCH A LATE SEASON FRONT.  A WEAK
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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