[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N38W 3N40W 3S42W...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 2S BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO
4N25W 4N32W 3N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1S12W 3N18W 4N25W
5N32W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 4W AND 6W IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE IVORY COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 22N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W 25N85W 20N97W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W...TO FLORIDA
JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N86W...INTO
WESTERN HONDURAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE WITHIN
300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N78W 20N97W
LINE...COVERING FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CUBA...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N76W 27N78W 20N86W 16N88W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA
AND SURROUNDING CITIES...INCLUDING SARASOTA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST
OF THE LINE 30N86W TO 19N95W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK OR MORE HAS INTENSIFIED
AND IT HAS BEEN REINFORCED. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
25N50W TO 22N55W. THE TROUGH IS BROKEN UP A BIT...AND IT
CONTINUES FROM 23N60W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N64W...BEYOND NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N45W 23N54W 26N64W AND TO 31N68W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF 12N60W 14N70W 15N80W 17N85W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 37W AND 72W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW..

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.31 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...
0.06 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND IN MONTEGO BAY IN
JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
PANAMA...BEYOND 83W AT THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 80W AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. OTHER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE
WEST OF 76W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AROUND SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN
LOCATION A BIT AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST INDICATES A COLD FRONT FROM 22N84W TO 17N87W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N26W 24N34W 16N45W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N79W TO 27N80W. EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 75W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS
OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W TO 23N50W TO 31N68W. EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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