[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N37W 2N38W 3S40W...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO
3N25W 6N33W 4N36W. THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N39W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
41W...TO 2S45W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 1S BETWEEN 39W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N/23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N81W
24N90W 20N96W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO BELIZE. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE 32N81W 20N96W LINE...COVERING FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MEXICO...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N77W 27N78W 25N81W 19N87W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITE...KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLY LINGERING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...FROM BROOKSVILLE
SOUTHWARD. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 22N85W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...THE HIGHEST TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N89W TO 20N97W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN REINFORCED.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 22N52W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 23N60W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO 15N64W...BEYOND NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N40W
TO 24N50W 24N60W AND TO 32N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 60 NM TO
75 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE NORTHEAST OF 13N60W 14N70W 16N80W 17N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 37W
AND 72W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW..

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.31 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...
0.06 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND IN MONTEGO BAY IN
JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W...
ACROSS PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W AT THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN A CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION
FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. OTHER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO
THE WEST OF 76W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE OBSERVING STATIONS THAT AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB AND AT 500 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. THE 18-HOUR
FORECAST INDICATES A COLD FRONT FROM 22N84W TO 17N87W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.
A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W
TO 24N55W TO 31N68W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net