[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 00N37W MOVING WEST AT 10-
15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS WELL
AS BROAD TURNING AS SEEN IN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS.
THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT FAIRLY LOW-LATITUDE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST
OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W THEN CONTINUES TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 4N17W TO 5N33W...BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE...FROM 2N38W AND ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
17N AND 24W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO
WEST AFRICA EAST OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 25N AND 30N. WINDS DROPPED BELOW GALE
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT FROM THE
1610Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER AND 30 KT FROM COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT
21Z IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE BLOWING ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. A VIGOROUS MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS PROVIDING SUPPORT
FOR THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE GULF WATERS BY
EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING THE BASIN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INDUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS.  STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT JUST NORTH
OF COLOMBIA...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS THERE
RECENTLY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
WEAK IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.  AS THE FRONT
REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY...NE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
SMALL AREA OF STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA WILL
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...NICARAGUA HAS BEEN INDUCED BY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE CONTINUED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA...THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MODERATE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
HISPANIOLA HAS BEEN INDUCED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING.  AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED
WITH MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER FROM 32N40W
TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW AT 30N42W TO 25N54W TO 32N68W.  NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONT
IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 35N46W.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACH STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ANTICIPATED...THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EQUATORWARD BUT NOT MUCH EASTWARD.  THE COLD
FRONT MAY REACH 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...RATHER LOW LATITUDE
FOR SUCH A LATE SEASON FRONT.

IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE FLORIDA BORDER NORTH OF 27N.  THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
INDUCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER
TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 32N76W BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  BOTH SE TO S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW TO N
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE
FRONT WILL SLOW AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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