[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 1N44W MOVING WEST NEAR
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. WITH NO FAVORABLE LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 260 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N19W TO 1N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 1N26W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 2N BETWEEN 5W-13W
AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE STATES INTO THE GULF BEING
ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR
34N84W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP LAYER DRY ACROSS THE BASIN
WHICH IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-20 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NOTED OVER THE NW AND SE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N73W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
22N80W TO 20N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
LIGHTING DATA INDICATING TSTMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 81W-85W.
ALOFT...A RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN
WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE NW BASIN WITH WINDS
RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WHILE TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE COVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 140 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST
WHERE WINDS REACH 20 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS
WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI
AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N73W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO NORTHERN
CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 20N84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR
15N86W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SWATH OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN A LINE FROM 30N71W SW TO 21N75W AND A LINE
FROM 30N77W SW TO 26N80W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 30N36W SW TO 22N45W WHERE IT STARTS VANISHING TO 20N55W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 11N NEAR 45W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC.
THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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