[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW TO THE
NORTH OF 22N WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF THE STATES OF VERACRUZ
AND TAMAULIPAS IN MEXICO. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO REACH 11 FEET.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N23W TO 10N25W AND 5N25W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO
13N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N26W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...TO 1S42W AND INTO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR
2S45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W...FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN
23W AND 30W...AND FROM 6N TO 2S BETWEEN 34W AND 50W...INCLUDING
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS...
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N94W 25N96W 23N97W. A SQUALL LINE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF 90W...INCLUDING
ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS THAT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA KVBS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF
92W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ELSEWHERE AT THE ICAO SITES.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 27N79W JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO HISPANIOLA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N73W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 73W/74W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 29N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N49W 24N58W AND TO 22N63W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN PART OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT NOW
APPEARS TO BE SEPARATE FROM THE FEATURE THAT IS STRETCHING FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.13 IN
NASSUA IN THE BAHAMAS...0.10 IN GUADELOUPE...0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY
IN JAMAICA...AND 0.06 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SANTIAGO. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...AND A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO
36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS AND
IT PUSHES NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA... WITH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N22W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W...AND WITHIN
180 NM TO 360 NM OF THE 25N22W CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N34W 29N33W
27N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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