[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM GALVESTON BAY SW TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE AT 14/1800 UTC FROM 22N-26N W OF 96W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO 11N21W MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED-V
PRESENTATION THAT COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING AND 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N25W TO
THE EQUATOR TO 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 07N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 25W-
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS EXTENDING S-SW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N93W
SW TO 25N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N
W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE
EASTERN GULF WITH PRIMARILY EASTERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA SE TO 23N75W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THAT SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA.
MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
FAR SE GULF WATERS...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N E OF 84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
THE NEARBY CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-85W. ALSO
INCLUDED WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH OF THE BASIN IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE E OF 70W...DRY UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICE OVERALL...WITH ONLY A FEW
WESTWARD MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND CURRENTLY...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W S-
SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W AND SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA SE TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 19N71W. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
THIS EVENING FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 68W-82W...INCLUDING CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA BEAR 32N67W. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 30N TO 38W WITH ONLY A VERY SUBTLE AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N49W TO 29N47W EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 43W-48W. FINALLY...A WEAKENING
1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N32W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NW TO 31N35W AND SE TO 27N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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