[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A VERY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS
APPROACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWER AND TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N94W TO 26N96W. STRONG WINDS
OF 30-35 KT WERE NOTED THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
FRONT LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSTMS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF TO EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM MISSISSIPPI TO VERACRUZ WED...AND
FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ
COMMENCING AT 12 UTC WED AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW
GULF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE SW GULF THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
10-14 FT MAINLY S OF 22N W OF 94W DURING THE GALE WIND EVENT.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 03N TO 14N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WWD ABOUT 10 KT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. IT IS BEING BROKEN UP BY
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N24W TO 00N35W
TO 01S46W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 07W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATER
TODAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE
SW GULF AND STRETCHES ALONG 95W S OF 23N. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALOFT... A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
U.S. SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF THE AREA WITH THE
HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA. WINDS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA GENERATING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD ON WED AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA. LOW-TOPED TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
DOMINATES THE BASIN. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA WHILE A TROUGH CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES SW TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE ISLAND...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL CROSSING THE ISLAND AND
WILL HELP TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 21N81W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE
BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH TONIGHT REACHING SE FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY
SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING ALSO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE E. THIS TROUGH
IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW
BAHAMAS WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
HISPANIOLA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A
PAIR OF WEAK HIGH PRES SITUATED JUST SE OF BERMUDA AND NEAR
33N41W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAK LOW
PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N32W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD IS NOTED NEAR 28N50W
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
THERE IN THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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