[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG
30N94W TO 26N96W TO 21N97W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N20W TO 4N22W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. IT IS BEING BROKEN UP BY
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N23W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 2S BETWEEN 2E AND 7W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 3N18W 2N27W 2N34W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 45W
AND 48W IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL...AND
FROM 2S TO 7S BETWEEN 30W AND 36W OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT IS SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 18N93W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN COVERING TEXAS
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...HAS BEEN APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TO THE EAST OF 90W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
EASTWARD TO 90W...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW HAS BEEN RELATED TO A 70W/71W
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N42W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N53W...TO A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KOPM...KBBF...KBQX...KIKT...AND KVOA. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KVOA. A VISIBILITY OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG IS
BEING REPORTED AT THE STATION KBBF. A VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 2 MILES
WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KBQX.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THUNDER ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITY IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
HAS BECOME 3 MILES WITH FOG...AFTER SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE REPORTS
OF 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER COASTAL ALABAMA. THE VISIBILITY IS ONE MILE OR LESS WITH
FOG AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN
CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
IS AT FORT MYERS AND NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N92W TO 18N93W. EXPECT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 88W. EXPECT ALSO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
25N TO THE EAST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N49W...TO 26N58W 23N65W...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 15N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N79W OFF THE COAST OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...TO 20N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 10N60W 13N67W 15N77W
16N85W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
60W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.25 IN
GUADELOUPE. THE 24-HOUR TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200
UTC WERE 0.19 FOR GUADELOUPE AND MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.11
FOR SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.06 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N27W TO 15N32W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. A 1019 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO 30N30W 28N30W 27N33W 30N35W 32N35W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N42W...TO 32N53W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N66W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N77W TO 22N79W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 9 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH 27N TO THE
WEST OF 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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