[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG
30N92W TO 25N95W TO 18N95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N18W TO 4N20W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 13N18W. IT IS BEING BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
28W...TO 4S30W AND 7S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 3N TO 2S BETWEEN 2E AND 4W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
7W AND 8W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 12W...AND FROM 2N TO
3N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S
BETWEEN 43W AND 51W IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF
BRAZIL...AND FROM 3S TO 7S BETWEEN 31W AND 38W OFF THE COAST OF
BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...BEYOND LOUISIANA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS. THE FRONT CUTS ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS TEXAS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE EAST OF 90W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A 71W ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N70W...TO 31N82W IN
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO 30N94W IN EAST TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N92W TO 18N93W. EXPECT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 88W. EXPECT ALSO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
25N TO THE EAST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N49W...TO 26N58W 23N65W...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 15N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W FROM 20N TO 26N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.25 IN
GUADELOUPE. THE 24-HOUR TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200
UTC WERE 0.19 FOR GUADELOUPE AND MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.11
FOR SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.06 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA.
LIGHT RAIN IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...S OF 18N W OF 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N24W TO 26N26W TO 17N32W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N42W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N70W...TO 31N82W IN
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO 30N94W IN EAST TEXAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N77W TO 22N79W. S
OF 27N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT E OF
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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