[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 6N17W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA BUT IS DISRUPTED BY THE
ABOVE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 7N20W AND
CONTINUES TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF
10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO 30N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS S ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO CAPE CANAVERAL. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED W OF BERMUDA
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS ALONG 31N TO 93W. THE GULF WATERS
REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC
WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO EARLY WED AND FROM W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST S OF
VERACRUZ EARLY THU. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF WED AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH THU. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR W/CENTRAL AND SW GULF WED
AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SW ATLC TO OVER E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-75W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER E CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 11N62W TO 19N56W INCLUDING TRINIDAD/TOBAGO...
BARBADOS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY WED. A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE NW
CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK BUT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W OF THE AREA THE
INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDS FROM 26N74W ACROSS THE S
BAHAMAS TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER E CUBA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 26N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 72W-78W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST W OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W-
65W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N25W TO 26N30W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH. W ATLC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS THE SW ATLC
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY
WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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