[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 12N15W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WHILE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE SHOWS LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WHICH LARGELY REMAINS A
REFLECTION OF GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND
A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN
13W-20W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH
THE GREATEST INFLUENCE FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 03W-40W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 02N23W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N23W TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N
BETWEEN 18W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDS AN
AXIS ALONG 30N/31N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THIS PATTERN OF E-SE WINDS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THOUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16N93W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N68W TO A BASE OVER NW
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N72W. AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR
SKIES W OF 77W THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N74W TO SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N75W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IMPACTING CUBA WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WEST OF THE ISLAND FROM
23N73W TO 19N75W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS CUBA WITH CONDITIONS AND SKIES
CONTINUING ON A GRADUAL IMPROVING AND CLEARING TREND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION...THE LARGER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N78W AND THE LARGER-SCALE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 21N67W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR 19N75W TO
26N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 67W-80W ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS AN AREA FROM 11N-26N BETWEEN
52W-64W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N41W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC IS A WEAKENING
AND OCCLUDED 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY REMAIN N OF 30N BETWEEN 24W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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