[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N93W 26N95W 22N96W 20.5N97W. NORTHWEST-
TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ARE
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
ALSO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO
THE WEST OF 93W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N25W TO 9N26W AND 5N26W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO
13N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N28W TO 1N33W 1N40W AND
ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N26W 3N30W
1N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 6N
BETWEEN 34W AND 53W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS...TO THE
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...WITHIN 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT NEAR 27N...AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...TO 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO 30N IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS
OF FLORIDA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO IS THAT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA KVBS...AT KVAF...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KEIR DURING THE
LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...KSPR...KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. SITES
KEHC AND KEIR ARE REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH
FOG. SITE KSPR IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH
FOG.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
COASTAL ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDER ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS APALACHICOLA...BROOKSVILLE...THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 27N79W JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO HISPANIOLA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N73W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE EAST
OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 16W TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND
FLOW...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF 70W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N49W 24N58W AND TO 22N63W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN PART OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT NOW
APPEARS TO BE SEPARATE FROM THE FEATURE THAT IS STRETCHING FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.13 IN
NASSUA IN THE BAHAMAS...0.10 IN GUADELOUPE...0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY
IN JAMAICA...AND 0.06 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30
HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
AND IT PUSHES NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N22W. THE TROUGH FROM SIX
HOURS AGO HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BEING REPLACED BY MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A TROUGH STILL CONTINUES
FROM THE 27N22W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
31W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N34W 25N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N67W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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