[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE ATLC NEAR
12N16W TO 4N17W. ITCZ FROM 4N17W TO 2N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 4W-27W AND FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN
30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF.
OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY
WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-90W. SEA FOG WITH LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FARTHER NE THROUGH SUN WITH SE RETURN FLOW PERSISTING
ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW
GULF EARLY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF 75W...WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED JUST S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH S TO VENEZUELA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLAND WILL MOVE W INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE EARLY MON THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM 32N66W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N45W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF PUERTO RICO. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 29N48W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
TO 26N58W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR
18N27W...WITH A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NE
AT 30N16W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 10N E OF 35W.
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 66W
SUN AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT.
A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TUE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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