[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO 4N19W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 2N38W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 4W-27W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W
ATLC GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 27N92W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE N GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-91W. DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SW
GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TO E TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER NE THROUGH SUN WITH SE RETURN FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NW GULF EARLY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF THE MONA PASSAGE
NEAR 17N68W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E THAT EXTENDS
FROM 12N62W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 22N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N-20N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S
OF 15N. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND WEAKEN SUN INTO MON WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES SUN THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND WEAKEN SUN INTO MON BEING ABSORBED BY A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TUE. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLAND WILL SHIFT
W MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY MON THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N70W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N71W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W
ALONG 30N64W TO 30N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 32N67W. THIS FRONT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR...THUS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W AND
EXTENDS TO 27N55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N60W THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 12N62W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH AN 65W AND FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 54W AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W
ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT
NE MON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W TO
ALONG 66W SUN AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA
MON NIGHT.  A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK NW ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TUE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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