[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W...TO 1N30W
AND 1N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 44W AND 51W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 6S BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 19W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS...
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W....AND ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 96W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
FROM ITS BORDER WITH NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 30N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KBQX...KHQI...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
AT ICAO STATION KGRY.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS  FROM
VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA BEYOND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
INCLUDING SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES...REACHING THE BEAUMONT
AREA ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER LOUISIANA ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER COASTAL ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD. FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
SMALLER CITIES. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 26N90W TO 27N84W
TO 25N82W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND AREA
OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 20N
TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N49W...TO 29N57W 23N65W...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...TO A 17N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ULTIMATELY PASSING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF COLOMBIA NEAR 4N71W. A
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 29N50W AND 27N55W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N58W 18N60W 14N61W...TO TRINIDAD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 68W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND POSSIBLY
PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.44 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.80 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND 0.62 IN GUADELOUPE.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AND SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB...AND THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA AT 500 MB. THE TROUGH FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N74W TO 19N76W TO
19N78W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
18N68.5W TO 16N73W TO 16N75W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N34W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
9N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO
THE NORTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N24W...THROUGH 32N31W...TO 30N39W 25N42W AND 15N50W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 45W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...INCLUDING IN
THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE..

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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