[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111037
TWDAT

.TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI
FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE ATLC NEAR
12N16W TO 4N17W. ITCZ FROM 4N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-29W AND FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NE GULF.
OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY
WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-90W. SEA FOG WITH LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER NE THROUGH TODAY WITH SE RETURN
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NW GULF EARLY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF 75W...WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO WEAKEN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 17N67W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S TO VENEZUELA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLAND WILL MOVE W INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE EARLY MON THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM 32N66W TO
WESTERN CUBA. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N45W
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF PUERTO RICO. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N37W TO 29N44W. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS
CENTERED NEAR 20N26W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE NE AT 29N14W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS N OF 10N E OF 30W. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 66W THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
AND HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT. A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TUE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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