[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N14W AND 2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 1N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS 1N4W...
1N8W...2N13W...4N13W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
5N TO THE EAST OF 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
IS DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...THROUGH OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH
TEXAS...AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPAN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N/31N FROM 70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...BEYOND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG/HAZE ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KOPM...KMZG...KBBF...
KBQX...KHQI...KCRH...KEIR...AND KSPR.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KOPM...KGHB...KAXO...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS...AND RAIN AND DRIZZLE...COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS/
COASTAL AREAS FROM LOUISIANA TO DESTIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET...EXCEPT TO 9 FEET IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...FROM
23N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 86W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS
OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W...ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W
FROM 14N TO 20N. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
25N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N60W TO
24N67W AND 24N74W. A SECOND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST STATIONARY FRONT...30N48W 25N57W
20N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 57W AND
62W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 26N56W
20N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN
60W AND 85W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.28 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS...1.68 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...0.26 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA...0.09 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.03
IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. A WESTWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 58W/59W FROM 11N
TO 17N.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND NEARBY
RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS AND
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF LA ROMANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS APPEAR IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR PORT-AU-
PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A 28N80W-
TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 18.5N TO THE EAST OF 82W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND
73W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
9N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 43W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N23W...THROUGH 32N32W...TO 30N39W 22N46W AND 14N50W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 30N48W 25N57W 20N63W
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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