[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 11N15W TO 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
15W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 26W AND
43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
BELIZE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST
LINE...FROM THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S...THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH TEXAS...AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPANS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N/31N FROM 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN TEXAS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS COVER THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE GULF INDICATE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD FOG
MAINLY NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 90W. NATIONAL MOSAIC WSR-88D
INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST S OF GALVESTON. THE ACTIVITY EXTENDED
OUT 90-120 NM S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF E OF 90W ON SAT AND SUN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N60W...SOUTHWARD THROUGH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N66W TO A BASE NEAR 10N72W.
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER BELIZE AND ASSOCIATED FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING CUBA AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE
TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH IS ALONG 65W FROM 14N TO 20N. 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC WERE 3.28 INCHES IN
ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 1.68 IN SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NE
CARIBBEAN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES NW OF THE AREA LATE SAT
AND SUN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WAS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW NOTED.

...HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA WAS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDED THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW EXPECTED
TO MOVE N OF THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED
OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF THE ISLANDS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N60W...SOUTHWARD THROUGH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N66W TO A BASE NEAR 10N72W.
THIS TROUGH WAS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W THROUGH 25N55W TO
20N62W. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM 29N51W TO 24N73W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N31W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CENTER COVERED THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND
45W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 43W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WAS CONFINED  TO
SCATTERED MODERATE ACTIVITY FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W
EXTENDING OVER PUERTO RICO....THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
36N25W...THROUGH 37N40W...TO 32N60W TO 31N75W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF THE 30N48W 25N57W 20N63W DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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