[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N13W SW
TO 3N15W 01N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 01N29W AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR AT 46W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N E OF
27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
GUATEMALA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AS WELL AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THE E PACIFIC HAVE BEEN ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR
INTO MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W. SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
TODAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY
BRINGING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N45W SW TO 23N65W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER WESTERN AND
EASTERN ATLC WITH A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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