[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W TO 1N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N19W...TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 22W...AND CONTINUING WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W AND 41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N AND THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 2S TO THE
EAST OF 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5S TO 5N BETWEEN 23W AND 39W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 92W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 87W. SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 70W...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG/HAZE ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...AND
KBQX...KHQI...AND KCRH.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED ALONG
THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS/COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.10 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN
66W AND 73W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N59W TO
28N62W...TO 22N62W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TO
12N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N44W...TO 26N53W AND 21N63W. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...PASSING THROUGH
32N50W TO 28N60W AND 27N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W
FROM 13N TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 59W
AND 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N55W 23N59W 20N63W.  RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W 26N50W 20N60W.  CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W INCLUDING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W INCLUDING ACROSS JAMAICA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N86W 14N72W
17N60W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.32 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.67 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...0.10 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN
66W AND 73W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER CONTINUE
IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. LIGHT RAIN
AND A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING
COVERS PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE
IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...
WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A 28N77W-
TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE
24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 19.5N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO
19N22W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N36W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLCONIC CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT MAY BE
MOVING AROUND ONLY THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...
FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W...AND FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N23W...THROUGH 32N30W...TO 27N42W AND 22N47W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N44W 26N53W 21N63W DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE SOUTH OF
23N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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