[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W
SW TO 04N13W 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
BEGINS NEAR 02N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02S-05N E OF 15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S-05N BETWEEN 17W-34W AND FROM 01S-
04N W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL U.S. HAS ITS BASE OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE GULF AND GENERATES
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AS WELL AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE E
PACIFIC HAVE BEEN ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR INTO MEXICO AND THE A
PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT ALONG
WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND
INTO THE GULF W OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS
SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN ALONG WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. SURFACE
RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N63W
TO 17N65W. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS OVER JAMAICA.
ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE BASIN. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVELS
DYNAMICS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN. RIDGING ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE WHICH ALONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N51W SW TO 26N59W TO
25N68W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM 30N46W SW TO 26N53W TO 22N60W. THE TROUGH ALOFT
ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N63W TO 17N65W. THESE
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN A LINE
FROM 30N45W SW TO 16N62W AND A LINE FROM 30N53W SW TO 18N66W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER WESTERN AND
EASTERN ATLC WATERS...THE WESTERN RIDGE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH NEAR 32N66W AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
34N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net