[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
01N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
06W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 06W-
21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 21W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG
90W OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. WHILE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 90W IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
W OF 90W IS PROVIDING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS W OF 93W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF
24N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W THAT
IS PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN
HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A FEW OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY DUE TO A WEAK WESTWARD DRIFTING SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FROM 23N63W TO THE
NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 66W ARE
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N63W TO 19N69W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWER AND
TSTMS ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 65W EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING SW TO 24N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 23N62W TO 19N69W HAS FRACTURED AWAY FROM THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 58W-69W. IN ADDITION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N52W SW TO 27N67W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N69W. FINALLY...EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF
THE AZORES NEAR 36N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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