[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
01N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N18W TO 01N21W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N05N BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
03N BETWEEN 19W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG
90W OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. WHILE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 90W IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
W OF 90W IS PROVIDING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS W OF 94W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF
WATERS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL WITH AN
ISOLATED AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF IN THE
VICINITY OF 24N95W ACCORDING TO A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND
08/0308 UTC. THE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W THAT
IS PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN
HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...
PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY DUE TO A WEAK 1015
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N67W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 21N67W TO 18N68W. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWER AND
TSTMS ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 66W EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING SW TO 23N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 25N63W INTO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
20N67W HAS FRACTURED AWAY FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N55WSW TO 28N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N70W.
FINALLY...EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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