[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
SW TO 02N16W 01N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
BEGINS NEAR 0N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 0N32W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03S-04N BETWEEN 17W-34W AND FROM 05S-02N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE CENTRAL U.S. PROVIDING THE GULF
WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES W OF 90W AND NORTHWESTERLIES E OF 90W.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EPAC TO THE WESTERN GULF WHICH ALONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N W OF 93W.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN ALONG WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
NEAR 28N76W WHICH IS PROVIDING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINSHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE REMAINDER BASIN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE
EXTENDING A TROUGH TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHICH ALONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR PERSISTING
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES
OF 10-15 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND EXTEND TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT
RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC
NEAR 28N76W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N47W
SW TO 26N52W TO 23N58W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 23N64W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 20N67W. A SWATH OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A LINE FROM 30N49W SW TO 18N64W
AND A LINE FROM 30N56W SW TO 19N66W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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