[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 01N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 16W-32W...
AND S OF 01N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING PROVIDING FOR VERY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS NOTED E OF 90W...AND 10 TO 20 KT S-SE
WINDS W OF 90W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WEDNESDAY WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION
EASTWARD ALONG 13N TO 65W THEN NE TO BEYOND 20N55W...INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NW CARIBBEAN N OF
18N. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO 22N73W IN THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCHING
WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND WINDWARD PASSAGE REGIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS FROM 24N66W TO 23N73W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING...STRONGEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 32N65W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 25N74W. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS TO 30N BETWEEN 65W-71W WITH NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTROLS MUCH OF THE ONGOING FAIR WEATHER W OF A LINE FROM
32N570W TO 23N74W ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N73W. FARTHER EAST...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
TO 24N66W THE W-SW AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N73W.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 23N67W SW TO
NW HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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