[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
04N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N22W TO 01N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 14W...AND
FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 16W-27W...AND S OF 02N BETWEEN 39W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING PROVIDING FOR VERY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT E-SE WINDS NOTED E OF 92W...AND 10 TO 20 KT S-SE WINDS W
OF 92W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WEDNESDAY WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION
EASTWARD ALONG 14N TO 65W THEN NE TO BEYOND 23N50W...INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NW CARIBBEAN N OF
18N. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 21N73W IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION WITH LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHING WESTWARD TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS FROM 24N65W TO 21N73W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING...STRONGEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 32N66W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 25N76W. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS TO 30N BETWEEN 63W-71W WITH NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTROLS MUCH OF THE ONGOING FAIR WEATHER W OF A LINE FROM
30N60W TO 23N75W ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N79W. FARTHER EAST...THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING IS MORE
PRONOUNCED AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N60W
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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