[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
02N19W TO 02N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 02N30W AND CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N
EAST OF 26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 03S-08N WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S.
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH
ALONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS 1017 MB
AND IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NE TO WEST OF GAINESVILLE WITHIN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WITH EASTERLY
FLOW DOMINATING E OF 90W S OF THE HIGH CENTER AND SE FLOW
DOMINATING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC BY TUESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N56W SW TO 24N65W TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 74W TO INCLUDE EASTERN CUBA WHERE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS
ACCORDING TO LIGHTING DATA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WHICH ALONG LOW LEVEL
MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. IN TERMS OF WINDS...A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRADES OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST
WHERE WINDS REACH A MAX OF 20 KT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA
WHICH ALONG REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT RAINSHOWERS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N56W SW TO 24N65W TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THESE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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