[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W
TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N22W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 06W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR VERY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.

FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST W OF OCALA FLORIDA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS NOTED E OF
90W...AND 10 TO 20 KT S-SE WINDS W OF 90W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WEDNESDAY
WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION
FROM ACROSS NICARAGUA EASTWARD THROUGH 13N72W TO BEYOND
12N61W...INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING
WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONT EXTENDS TO 22N74W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE REGIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING...STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 32N65W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 23N74W. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS TO 30N EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 30N68W...
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTROLS MUCH OF THE ONGOING FAIR WEATHER W OF A LINE FROM
32N57W TO 23N78W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N77W.

FARTHER EAST...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
MORE PRONOUNCED AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W...EXTENDING SW TO 25N60W TO 23N65W
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED FROM 23N64W SW TO N CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150-
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


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