[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun May 4 19:01:42 CDT 2014


AXNT20 KNHC 050001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N20W TO 02N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N28W TO 01N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-09N E OF
27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N91W. STABLE
DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FAVORING
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING WITH ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES TO THE NE GULF...E-SE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SE WIND FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N65W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W WHERE WITHOUT SUPPORT ALOFT IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N85W TO CENTRAL BELIZE
NEAR 17N88W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N W OF 79W. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO INCLUDE THE MONSOON TROUGH
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND
TSTMS WHICH EXTEND S OF 11N BETWEEN 74W-77W. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE COLD
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TO SW N ATLC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND TONIGHT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT OVER CUBA
SLIGHTLY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N65W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N85W TO CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 17N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
30N41W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net




More information about the Tropical mailing list