[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO
3N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
3N27W THEN CROSS THE EQUATOR AT 40W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 4N-9N E OF 16W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A 90 KT WLY
JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS ARE MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WITH DEW POINTS RISING OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N92W. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF GULF LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
50 KT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DIVIDES
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N77W AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS NOTED IN THE REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DISPLACED INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TROUGHING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A STRONG BREEZE THROUGH TUE MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS THE
FRONT PASSES N OF HISPANIOLA MON...LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO INCREASE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREAS.
WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AS IT STRETCHES
FROM NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N56W.
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA
NEAR 27N23W WITH TROUGH SW TO 21N36W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
JETSTREAM IS ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THIS JET MAX IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS

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